Every delegate will count

By this time next week, more than half the states in the nation will have conducted primaries or caucuses to select delegates to the Republican and Democratic national conventions.

Most of those states will vote on "Super Tuesday" next week, Feb. 5, and shortly afterwards most of the "also rans" will be dropping out, leaving only the true front runners still engaged in the process.

It is unlikely, however, that any of the front runners will have a clear path to their parties' conventions, as this year is shaping up to be truly competitive, and the race could go down to the convention wire.

As I write this, voters are going to the polls in Florida, where Republicans will select about 5 percent of their national delegates in a "winner take all convention." The pre-election polls (remember New Hampshire, however) were extremely close between John McCain and Mitt Romney. Rudy Giuliani, whose strategy to campaign there for months in hopes of kick-starting his campaign, looks like he's out of it. My wife, who was born in Queens, N.Y., told me the other day that many people consider Miami to be the sixth borough of New York. But it doesn't look like he's going to win there, and he may not win New York on Super Tuesday, either.

For the Democrats, the national committee sanctioned both Michigan and Florida for moving their primaries up, and theoretically, their delegates won't be seated at the national convention (although Hillary Clinton is going to push for it since she stands to gain the most).

Except for McCain, Romney, Clinton and Obama, after Super Tuesday any candidate who stays in the race is doing so simply to have a voice at his party's convention, and possibly the ability to broker his delegates into a vice-presidential nod. Because, for the first time in ages, both conventions may not be simple coronations. They might actually go beyond the first ballot (at which point most delegates are "released" from their obligations and can vote for anyone).

It may be both strange and, for some, frightening, but both John Edwards and Mike Huckabee may very well have enough delegates to serve as "kingmakers."

The Democrats have been holding conventions since 1832. Only 16 times has the voting on the floor gone beyond one ballot, the last time in 1952, when Adlai Stevenson was nominated after three ballots. Democrats hold the record for the most number of ballots to select a candidate, 103 in 1924, when John Davis was nominated (there's a name destined to go down in history, he got beat by Calvin Coolidge -- Calvin Coolidge!).

The Republicans have been holding conventions since 1856, and only ten of those have gone beyond the first ballot. The last time that happened was in 1948, when Thomas Dewey was nominated after three ballots. Their record for most ballots is a mere 36, occurring in 1880, when James Garfield was nominated.

That means it's been more than half a century for either party to actually have a floor fight for the nomination (in 1968 the Democrats had a major fight involving the seating of delegates, but once that was resolved it took just one ballot to nominate Hubert Humphrey).

But this year, both parties could wind up with no candidate having a clear majority going into the convention, which means that every single delegate counts.

That's one of the reasons Barack Obama is making a quick visit to Idaho in advance of the Democratic caucuses on Feb. 5. Idaho's 23 delegates could actually be important for once (which is a good reason to attend the caucuses next week if you're a Democrat).

Idaho's Republicans will select their 32 delegates during the May 27 primary. They are currently asking the legislature to "close" the primary, meaning only "registered" Republicans can vote in it, in an effort to stop independents and Democrats from "crossing over" and voting for weak Republican candidates.

The Idaho Democrats currently require you to "register" before attending their caucuses, but frankly, there's nothing that makes either declaration binding. Theoretically, you could "declare" Tuesday to be a Democrat, then "change your mind" and "declare" on May 27 that you're a Republican, thereby voting twice. Still, in both cases, they're sort of telling the independents neither party wants them -- until they need them in November.

There are two classes of delegates the parties will send to their conventions, those selected by popular vote and committed on the first ballot to the candidates they represent, and "super delegates," usually top party officials and elected leaders who are not committed in advance (unless they choose to declare early). In Idaho, a lot of the Democratic party leadership is privately hoping for an Obama victory, because many of them believe a Clinton candidacy in the fall would poison their efforts to get any Democrats elected elsewhere in the state (they know the state will vote for a Republican for president, no matter who it is).

But nationally, Clinton has a lot of the party machinery behind her, meaning she'll get most of those super delegates so Obama's fighting an uphill battle and will have to do much better than she does in collecting the directly elected delegates. The defection of the Kennedy clan from her ranks will cost her a little, but Bill's strength within the party should still get her the bulk of superdelegates. Ted Kennedy's endorsement of Obama probably won't help Obama in a lot of states (although it will with some superdelegates), but Caroline Kennedy's remarkably eloquent endorsement might. The last direct link with Camelot, her voice may actually carry more weight these days with real voters than that of her tainted uncle.

To me, the most interesting thing about this year's presidential race is how much the voters seem to care. Turnouts are at record or near-record levels. Voters are actually getting some real and viable choices, and despite a certain amount of inevitable mudslinging (which seems to be backfiring badly these days), issues are actually dominating.

This is shaking out to be one of the most interesting elections in a very long time.