Voters want REAL change

As I write this, voters are going to the polls in New Hampshire and the dust still hasn't settled from the Iowa caucuses.

On the GOP side:

Huckabee did well in Iowa, a true Bible-belt state, but he'll fade. There's only a few states, mainly in the mid-west, where his evangelical appeal resonates with voters. The rest of the country is a lot more secular.

Thompson can't quite seem to get the energy up to campaign and he'll snooze his way to oblivion by the end of Super Tuesday.

Guliani is banking on the big Super Tuesday states to energize his campaign, but it may be too late by then. Furthermore, his strength is in the north and the bulk of Super Tuesday states are in the south.

Romney appears to be re-inventing himself every week, based on what the latest polls say he should be, and that's going to eventually hurt him badly, but he'll win a few states and keep the race interesting, at least until his money runs out.

McCain will be challenged in the south by Romney and in the north by Guliani, where he'll split states with those candidates, and he should do well in the west. But I don't see him running away with the race. In fact, the GOP convention could very well last longer than one ballot -- and it's been a long time since that's happened in either party. But he seems to have momentum right now.

On the Democratic side:

If Edwards doesn't score big on Super Tuesday he's out. Frankly, I think he's running for VP already (but he won't get it). Kennedy-like good looks just isn't enough and somehow he's just not seeming to get his message out as well as the other candidates. He needs a better speech writer.

Clinton started out by running as a Washington insider who could get things done. She's having to reinvent herself as the voice of change following Iowa. And she expected to win the women's vote hands down, but it seems like Oprah carries more weight with that class of voters.

Plus, claiming she has more foreign policy experience simply because she slept with Bill, well, that isn't exactly an exclusive club, is it? In fact, I'll buy into Obama's belief that having lived overseas he tends to understand foreign affairs a little better that most. I see that same awarness in all the "military brats" around town here. Having lived overseas, they tend to have a more realistic view of the rest of the world than most Americans and an understanding that most of the world isn't like the United States (something Bush never figured out).

Obama has pretty much stuck to his guns as a new, fresh voice of reason, unity and change. That seemed to resonate in Iowa, which is overall a pretty conservative state, and it looks like it's going to work in blue-collar New Hampshire as well.

The rest of the candidates on both sides of the ticket are clearly either wasting their money or praying to show enough in a key voting block that they can earn a VP nomination.

Make no mistake. Iowa and New Hampshire are not the entire nation. But there were a couple trends that would seem to be important.

First, voters are really, really fed up with "business as usual" in Washington, D.C. They are tired of the "gamesmanship" in which jockeying for power seems more important than solving the country's problems -- and we've clearly got some. And they are disgusted at how big money and powerful special-interest lobbies seem to carry more weight than the average American's opinions and needs.

Second, while every election brings candidates promising change, the electorate this year seems serious about it and they want a candidate who's serious about it. Long-time Republicans are upset at how much their own party has given mere lip service to and then promptly ignored in practice it's traditional values, especially fiscal conservatism. And long-time Democrats are increasingly fed up with the their party's self-destructive catering to "greenies" and the other lunatic fringes of their party.

Which is why more and more members of both parties are moving into the ranks of "independents." This is an election in which a popularist candidate has a real chance, somebody who seems to be reaching out to the common man.

The voters want real change, not superficial change. They're tired of people picking their pocketbooks to benefit the big corporations. And they are tired, very tired, of constant confrontation and power games.

That's why I think McCain and Obama will eventually prevail.

McCain may have been an "insider" for a long time, but he has a reputation for being a maverick and when the two parties have deadlocked on key issues, he has often been one of the leaders in forging effective compromises. I think voters this year want someone who is willing to compromise, to find ways to make things work, rather than the hard core dogmatic and confrontational "take it or leave it -- my way or no way" politics of recent years.

And Obama, well, he can inspire.

In my lifetime, I've seen two presidents who were able to inspire the nation, Kennedy and Reagan, and maybe we need a little inspiration these days. Maybe we need someone who can start to make us feel good about ourselves again. Americans are feeling a little beat up right now. Having someone come along who can make us all feel like America really is the "best and the brightest" in the world again may be something we need even more than a sound economic policy and health care reform.

He's also managed to energize a bloc of voters both parties have hoped to reach, but failed badly to get involved in recent years -- the younger Americans who are just starting their adult lives and families. That could be big if he can sustain it.

And he preaches a message of compromise and unity. He may lack some experience, but he's darn smart and he surrounds himself with good people. Good advisors are hard to come by and extremely valuable (compare, say, Bush's team against that of FDR's). He seems to have "the touch" for identifying competent people.

Both McCain and Obama are placing their bets on mainstream middle-class America, which has been forgotten far too long in American politics. Both want to see the country come together, and I think most Americans do as well. And both seem to recognize that once they get elected, they will represent all Americans, not just their own party. That means they will try and forge policies that will appeal to most Americans, not just 51 percent.

And both men seem to realize that the "hot button" issues, such as abortion or gun control (among a long list of special interest issues), have very little to do with the day-to-day success or failure of this country. Most Americans simply want their kids educated, their taxes low, and their wages adequate to stretch their pocketbook so they can save a little and splurge occasionally. They want to feel safe walking the street and they want to believe that the future for their children will be bright.

If the voters in the rest of the country continue the trends of Iowa and New Hampshire, they might just actually get that.

The men (or woman) who can make citizens believe in America again, and that "business as usual" is over, are going to win.